2024 was a unique year when considering the SA equity market, with the key focus being on sentiment. A key driver that has been the subject of much debate and discussion is the ‘somewhat’ expected outcome of the GNU. Yes, it was the path of least resistance and made the most sense, yet it’s impact on SA equities was profound. The biggest beneficiaries of the GNU positivity was the likes of small and medium caps while momentum (as expected) captured the small and medium positive headwind. The question that remains now is whether the, upon measurement, the GNU translates to a better South Africa and fiscus. This will have a major impact on the JSE, which, if negative or realistic sentiment creeps in, could translate to large cap, rand hedge and value shares producing market beating performance in 2025. Interestingly, this is exactly what our VAR model is predicting, while the ML model is predicting more of the same for the first quarter. Once, again it’s anyone’s guess as to what may happen entailing that diversification across styles is paramount!